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Dexter Fowler throws out a sprinting Jazz Chisholm at third base in the top of the 3rd inning Granted, I think Statcast is graciously ignoring the glove-assisted Syndergaard home run in center field, but still. Last year’s rough results at the plate brought it to the forefront, but Fowler has bounced back extremely well to this point in 2019, resembling the OBP machine the Cardinals expected. Is it for real? He’s right at zero in all of those categories as a right fielder.Even his UZR reflects that difference. Among the other categories, Fowler is:It’s not that Fowler is competing with Bader for the team lead in five-star catches or really flaunting some exceptional range. Fowler is sporting an OBP over .400. That’s better than the mark of Bader this season. The Cardinals season has been a gut punch - A Hunt and PeckSeries with the Pirates Postponed; Lane Thomas Tested Positive for COVID-19 His sprint speed was 27.4 ft/sec last year, up to 27.7 ft/sec in 2019. Fowler may not have the range or electricity of Bader in the outfield, but he’s shown through his 36 games this season that he can play his position at league average or above. Right now, he’s among the top 16 defensive outfielders in the league, and he’s done most of it at his original position.
All of Fowler’s value has actually come from his time in center field.Fowler has notched 22 more innings in center than he has right this season. We're going to look at players who improved at least five runs from one season to the next and also have a subsequent season in which to compare. His UZR/150 in right field is -3.9. Was it merely the change in positioning? Is the Dexter Fowler who served as the jumpstart to the 2016 Cubs and turned in a pretty solid 2017 for the Cardinals making his way back? It was honestly a bit of a head-scratcher, as Fowler had never posted a positive number in the Def component of fWAR in any full major league season. In Fowler’s first season as a Cardinal, he moved in three feet, averaging a depth of 318. "I love Dexter," Maddon said. Fowler has even had two outfield assists in center field this season, which ties his total from last year. His -18 DRS in 2017 warranted a shift to the corner. Of course, there's this: Because Fowler had such a horrific 2014 defensive season in Houston (minus-20 DRS), his 13-run improvement last season was his second straight leap. Only 103 of them (21.1 percent) improved even more, while another 25 held steady. We hear a lot of talk about the potential defensive decline for aging center fielders and everyone seemed to be locked in on that being Fowler’s reality. I want to talk a bit about his defense. Fowler’s average depth in center went back to 321 feet. He came back from the IL and continued to perform well. "He is … Through 260 innings, he’s 16th in the holistic measurement of Def (1.7). Also, while all defenders as a group lost an average 5.1 runs after a big one-season jump, the regression wasn't nearly so steep for outfielders, which lost 2.2 runs per fielder. We’re speculating here, of course. Fowler did play very shallow defense prior to his arrival in Chicago. Fowler's DRS in Busch Stadium since 2012 has been a collective plus-1, and it was plus-3 in the Cubs' nine games played in St. Louis in 2016. In 2015, the Cubs gave up a double or triple on 9 percent of balls allowed in play; last year that plummeted to 5.6 percent -- best in the majors. The bottom line is, while defensive metrics remain an area of uncertainty, there are more reasons to think that Fowler will retain his gains than not. The Cardinals have long been one of the most progressive organizations around, and if you really want to know how likely it is that Fowler retains his defensive uptick, you have to start with the most obvious data point of all: The Cardinals signed him. Cardinals outfielder Dexter Fowler shared a story on his Instagram Tuesday of a time he was racially profiled while at a club with his then-Cubs teammates. That can’t be all, though. If you want to toss out Fowler's Houston season as an outlier, the move from Wrigley to Busch should boost his quest to retain his defensive gains. Dexter Fowler signed a 5 year / $82,500,000 contract with the St. Louis Cardinals, including a $10,000,000 signing bonus, $82,500,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $16,500,000. That's a good sign, but certainly nothing on which you'd want to base a projection.
Fowler has logged about 40 percent of the innings he totaled in 2018 to this point in the season. It’s hard to deny at this point.
He started the season hot, and with that came speculation. Fowler has been able to post plus numbers in center, the position he was initially signed to fill, while having a defensive liability to his left, which is a side he’s struggled to cover. 20.7k Likes, 750 Comments - Dexter Fowler (@dexterfowler) on Instagram: “Here’s the thing. Again, we can't emphasize enough that projecting defense is hard to do, and it takes a strong buy-in to DRS as a metric to believe any of this, but consider what we've determined: Here’s 2019 through last night’s game:There were only two plays with catch probabilities of 60 percent or greater that Fowler didn’t convert.
Fowler's DRS in Busch Stadium since 2012 has been a collective plus-1, and it was plus-3 in the Cubs' nine games played in St. Louis in 2016. A lot. It’s the second-best on the active roster, behind Harrison Bader.
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